2025 Kentucky Derby Preview: Favorites, Longshots, and Storylines to Know

This year’s favorite is Journalism, who has a great pedigree, followed by Sovereignty, trained by a Hall of Famer, and Sandman, who has a rare coat of gray.

Journalism is washed during morning training on April 29, 2025, in preparation for the 151st Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky. Andy Lyons/Getty Images

The Triple Crown of Thoroughbred Racing gets underway this Saturday as the first leg takes place in Louisville, Ky.

The 2025 Kentucky Derby will be held at Churchill Downs as the best 3-year-old horses will compete over 1 ¼ miles at the fabled racetrack.

It is the 151st running of the race, which is nicknamed both The Run for the Roses and The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports. Since the Kentucky Derby is limited to 3-year-olds, that means there’s a new cast of characters each year battling for the winner’s share, which is $3.1 million this year, part of the record-tying $5 million purse.

This year’s Derby favorite is Journalism (3–1), who has won four straight starts, including three versus elite fields. Journalism checks all the boxes, starting with the fact that his father, Curlin, finished in the money (placing in the top three) in all three of the Triple Crown races in 2007. That indicates that Journalism has great pedigree, and his speed figures are among the best in the Kentucky Derby field.

But the Derby favorite hasn’t won The Run for the Roses in any of the last six years. Ironically, that followed a six-year stretch from 2013–18 in which the favorite did prevail every year, so things have balanced out. Overall, the favored horse has won 56 of 150 previous Kentucky Derbies, or 37 percent, and that’s right on par with how favorites as a whole perform in all horse races.

After Journalism, the next level of Kentucky Derby contenders is a tier of two: Sovereignty (5–1) and Sandman (6–1). The former is trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, who has been named Trainer of the Year four times in his career, and his colt already has a Churchill Downs victory, courtesy of the Street Sense Stakes last October. As for Sandman, spectators’ eyes will gravitate toward him whenever he steps onto the track as he has a gray coat color, which only 3 percent of thoroughbreds possess. The colt is coming off an impressive win at the Arkansas Derby and seems better suited for long-distance races like the Kentucky Derby.

Two of the three biggest favorites having names that start with “S” is notable because names that start with that letter have won the Derby a record 19 times. That’s six more than any other letter (both “B” and “C” have 13 victories), as 23 of the 26 letters have produced Derby winners. The letters “Q”, “X” and “Y” are the outliers, and no horses in this year’s field have names beginning with those letters.

If you’re wondering about the letter “J” due to the favorite, Journalism, it has five Kentucky Derby champions. The most recent is Justify in 2018, who is also the last Triple Crown winner.

Of the 20-horse field, 18 are American-based, while two come from overseas. Luxor Café and Admire Daytona are both Japan-based, and while it’s nice to have an international presence at The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports, the American horses are likely glad to see foreign starters. That’s because foreign horses haven’t traditionally fared well at the Derby, as none of the last 48 have won the race. Japanese starters are 0 for 8 all-time, though last year saw Forever Young become the first Japanese horse to finish in the money.

The 2025 Kentucky Derby marks the return of legendary trainer Bob Baffert to Churchill Downs after a three-year suspension following his horse, Medina Spirit, flunking a post-race drug test in 2021. Medina Spirit won the 2021 Kentucky Derby, but the drug test nullified his victory, and he would die seven months later. Baffert has a record-tying six Kentucky Derby victories, tied with Ben Jones for the most by a trainer in race history. He has a two-horse stable for this year’s Derby with Rodriguez, who is the son of 2020 Kentucky Derby winner Authentic, as well as Citizen Bull, who drew the No. 1 post position and will start from the rail.

Post position is always a big talking point with a race of this size, as where a horse begins certainly matters. Some post positions are more desirable than others, with the No. 1 post being among the most unwanted. That’s because the other 19 horses in the field will all move toward the rail at the turn, which could bury the horse that’s already at that spot. It’s been nearly 40 years since the No. 1-post produced a winner (Ferdinand, 1986), but the worst post is unlucky No. 17.

Of the first 20 posts, No. 17 is the only one that has never produced a Kentucky Derby champion, going 0 for 45 all-time. It’s been 37 years since a horse from No. 17 even finished among the top three, and one of the favorites, Sandman, drew the 17-post this year. However, it certainly had an effect on his chances, as his odds to win went down upon him drawing No. 17. He went from being tied for the second-best odds to being the outright third favorite.

While favorites will always attract the most attention, it’s those longshots that capture the imagination of both diehard and casual horse racing fans. There’s no singular longshot in this year’s field as nine horses are tied with the lowest odds at 30-1. The odds will shift on the day of the race, and the second-biggest longshot to ever prevail came just three years ago with Rich Strike. He was also initially listed at 30–1 before being moved to 80–1 on Derby Day, so any of the nine horses at 30–1 could also see their odds drastically change.

Among those currently at 30–1 are Render Judgment, who is saddled by last year’s Kentucky Derby-winning trainer in Ken McPeek, as well as American Promise, who’s the son of 2018 Triple Crown champion Justify. There’s also Neoequos, who is ridden by 2019 Derby-winning jockey Flavian Prat, and another huge longshot is Final Gambit, a gray horse who has finished in the money in all four of his career starts.

The first Saturday in May is synonymous with the Kentucky Derby, and this year’s field is one of the most diverse and interesting in recent memory. Two weeks after the Derby comes the Preakness Stakes, then three weeks later, Triple Crown season will conclude with the Belmont Stakes.

The 2025 Kentucky Derby is the 12th of 14 races taking place at Churchill Downs on Saturday and will go to post at 6:57 p.m. ET. It will air on NBC and stream on Peacock.