French Negotiator Says New Caledonia at Risk of Civil War

Minister for Overseas Manuel Valls arrived in the French territory a month ago for a second round of negotiations, but the sides seem no closer to agreement.

French Overseas Minister Manuel Valls greets the families of fallen gendarmes during his visit to the Saint-Michel Gendarmerie Brigade, in the commune of Le Mont-Dore, New Caledonia, Feb. 23, 2025. DELPHINE MAYEUR/AFP via Getty Images

French Minister for Overseas Manuel Valls arrived in New Caledonia a month ago for the second round of talks between the French government and local Kanak leaders to map out the island’s political future.

Last time, he was there between Feb. 22 and March 1, and this time he has vowed to remain until an agreement is reached.

It comes in the wake of the deadly riots in 2024, where roads were blocked and businesses set alight by protesters, and both Kanak rebels and French gendarmes were killed.

During his first visit, Valls managed to get pro- and anti-independence groups to agree to talks, the first time that had happened since 2021.

He then published what he called “a synthesis paper“ summarising the views of both sides.

Despite that progress, he repeated that the situation on the ground remained serious.

“We are walking on a tightrope above embers,” he told a panel of French journalists before his most recent visit.

While his main concerns are New Caledonia’s economic situation, Valls is also worried about the tense atmosphere, a resurgence in “racism [and] hatred,” the rapid deterioration in public health services, and the rise in poverty caused by an increasing number of jobless.

“All these risks are there, and that is why it is everyone’s responsibility to find an agreement,” he said. “And I will stay as long as needed, and I will put all my energy so that an agreement takes place.

“Not for me, for them.”

He said he hoped a revised version of the draft document, resulting from discussions during his previous visits and new proposals from the French government, would provide an admittedly “difficult path” that could help reconcile the two sides.

“If there is no agreement, then economic and political uncertainty can lead to a new disaster, to confrontation, and to civil war,” he said.

“That is why I have appealed several times to all political stakeholders, those for and against independence. Everyone must take a step towards each other. An agreement is indispensable.”

Neither Side Appears Willing to Shift

Despite his warning, the pro- and anti-independence movements haven’t signalled any shift from their previous, intractable positions.

The pro-independence Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS) held a convention to decide whether to attend the second round of talks.

They eventually agreed but did not refer to the meeting as “negotiations,” only “discussions.”

The convention also reaffirmed its demands for a “Kanaky Agreement” to be signed by Sept. 24, 2025, followed by a five-year transition period. That agreement plots a path toward full sovereignty.

Several groups on the pro-France side point to the three referenda held between 2018 and 2021, all of which rejected full sovereignty, even though the pro-independence camp largely boycotted the last consultation.

That, they say, should be the starting point for any final agreement.

Les Loyalistes Party leader Sonia Backès told a public rally last week that they had refused to talk about a date for yet another referendum.

“A new referendum would mean civil war,” she said. “And we don’t want to fix the date for civil war.” However, she said they “still want to believe in an agreement.”

“We’re part of all discussions on seeking solutions in a constructive and creative spirit.”